Industry News

The opening Big Issues session of the Maritime CEO Forum yesterday at the Monaco Yacht Club provided a revealing snapshot of where shipping stands today: navigating an era of unprecedented volatility, regulatory uncertainty and an ageing fleet.

Moderated by Sam Chambers, editorial director of Splash, the panel featured leading voices from across the sector — each delivering a mix of caution, realism and even optimism about what lies ahead.

Opening his remarks, analyst Burak Cetinok, head of research at Arrow, laid out the stark backdrop. “I truly believe this is probably the most volatile and uncertain time in recent history,” Cetinok said. He pointed to three indices — the World Uncertainty Index, geopolitical risk indices and the New York Fed’s trade policy uncertainty gauge — all of which have reached record highs this year.

He linked these metrics to shipping too, showing sector-specific fleet earnings volatility is now materially higher than in the prior decade (see charts below).

For Stamatis Tsantanis, chairman and CEO of Seanergy Maritime, the regulatory front added another layer of concern. Reflecting on the recent failed vote at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on the Net-Zero Framework, he said: “It opens up many years of uncertainty again.”

Tsantanis said shipping would have to go through a period of local disruption before there’s a unified approach.

Tsantanis argued that smaller and mid-sized shipowners are now vulnerable, saying: “What is the biggest threat to the smaller individual companies is over-regulation and operating in an uncertain environment and being imposed billions of dollars of decisions that are going to drive them out of business.”

Alex Albertini, CEO of Marfin Management, offered a nuanced take on the failure to ratify the Net-Zero Framework.

“It gives a little bit more confidence for the traditional fuels. We’re seeing a little bit more activity towards new buildings of traditional ships in the last week or so,” he said.

He warned that without a unified global set of rules, fragmented regional regimes are likely to proliferate, making compliance more complex and costly.

On the operational front, Tsantanis described the ship repair yard situation with some urgency:

“At any given point of time in 2025 and 2026 about 3.5 % to 4 % of the global capesize fleet will be tied up in some sort of dry-docks,” he said

Arrow’s Cetinok said data show that in 2025 alone, over 1,000 ships will hit the third special survey milestone — putting even more pressure on yards and repair slots.

“Next year, it’s going to be about 1,250 ships. The year after that close to 1,300 ships.”

Cetinok returned to the broader implications of global trade shift: “We are seeing this polarisation in the global economy,” he said. “We’re going to have two camps, the US camp and the China camp and that’s going to cause a lot more friction.” This will lead to more unpredictability, more instability and greater volatility, he said, while the increased trade inefficiency could paradoxically benefit shipping.

Cetinok stopped short of declaring a supercycle, but suggested: “Average vessel earnings will be significantly higher over the next 10 years compared to the previous 10 years. That’s based on supply-related issues, but due to changes in the way global trade is being executed.”

Turning to shipmanagement, Petter Traaholt, CFO of V.Group, likened the sanctions, screening and supplier due diligence regime to a nightmare.

Shipmanagers are now operating in a world where compliance and risk-screening dominate daily routine and cost centres.

Ensuring his shipping company is checking all the compliance boxes, Marfin’s Albertini said it has increased the workload on his staff by at least 15%.

For shipowners, operators and financiers gathered in Monaco yesterday, the message was clear: move beyond business-as-usual. Forecasting the next decade will require modelling around high uncertainty, regulatory ambiguity and shifting trade lanes.

Investment decisions, whether in newbuildings, vessel upgrades or drydock scheduling, will need to incorporate flexible hedging for what-ifs.

If shipping has become accustomed to disruption, yesterday’s high-level discussion reinforced that the new normal isn’t calm waters ahead — it’s constant motion, deepening structural change and, possibly, opportunity in the chaos.

To read it in Splash247.com : click here